Observers React to Egypt’s Year of Transition

The first anniversary of Egypt’s revolution elicited commentary on Egypt’s transition, not all of which was optimistic. In a joint piece for the Washington Institute for Near East Peace, Samuel Tadros argues that “there is no true democratic transition in Egypt,” but rather Islamists and the military vying for power.  The U.S. and non-Islamists can only hope for a balance where “Islamists do not take over every aspect of the state.” With a similar view, Eric Trager writes “Egypt seems poised to become a competitive theocracy,” where the Muslim Brotherhood and conservative Salafis “fight over how to properly interpret Islamic law.” Lastly, David Schenker asserts that the U.S. must make clear that Egypt’s relationship with America “will be damaged if parliament presses for confrontation with Israel.”

Responding to these pessimistic assessments of Egypt’s future, Ed Husain writes in the Wall Street Journal that “American conventional wisdom” believes that the fall of the dictators weakens American leverage in the Middle East. But Husain argues that Egypt’s revolutionaries looked to America for a democratic model, and says even Islamists “seek an American stamp of approval that bestows legitimacy,” and “show animosity toward the U.S. only with regard to Israel.” Issander El Amrani of the Arabist blog goes further in challenging these views, saying they come from “those who primarily see U.S. Middle East policy through the lens of Israel.” El Amrani argues that the biggest mistake the U.S. can make is to “try to force things or maintain a system that Egyptians clearly want to change.”