Lebanon: Political Movement on STL

Nicholas Noe writing in Foreign Policy analyzes Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah‘s recent comments regarding a potential indictment of members of his party by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL). Noe argues that Hezbollah does not view the indictments themselves as a direct or serious threat, noting that  since 2006, “the party has reached a fundamentally different — and more secure — position of political, diplomatic and military power, not to mention ideological coherence.” Noe argues that “even though many in the West, in Israel and even some in the Arab and Islamic spheres portray Hizbullah as constituted wholly in opposition to reason, democracy and morality (among other things), Hizbullah’s rise is founded, in part, on the discourse and practice of reason.”Given Hezbollah’s attempts to use “rhetorical and operational lengths to prove to various publics — including even the American public — that it is not a ‘crazy’ party,” Noe suggests that the STL decision could ultimately trigger destabilizing currents in Lebanon, since any indictment would damage Hezbollah’s legitimacy and potentially be seen by the party as “a sideshow emboldening and quickening Hizbullah’s enemies” toward a larger issue: an impending sectarian war.

Meanwhile, Omayma Abdel-Latif writing in Al-Ahram Weekly also discusses emerging political alignments on the STL issue and observes the potential for the indictments to send Lebanon into an internal political crisis. Abdel-Latif highlights the flurry of regional diplomatic activity generated by Nasrallah’s statements, noting that Saudi King Abdullah has undertaken a 4-day tour of meetings with Arab leaders– including Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, the emir of Qatar, Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad and Lebanese President Michel Suleiman –in order to “discuss damage limitation strategies should leaks of the STL’s finding prove true.” He explains that the rumors of Hezbollah indictments have sparked concern among some analysts that “the tribunal is being used to settle political scores and advance the agenda of the Western- backed 14 March alliance.” According to Abdel-Latif, one solution under consideration at the summit of Arab leaders is urging the postponement of the indictment until late this year, but he notes that “any delay would put off the crisis rather than resolve it.” He cites Lebanese Industry Minister Mohamed Al-Safadi, who has argued that the situation calls for strong leadership from the top, saying: “‘[Prime Minister Saad] Al-Hariri has the bigger role to play in ending this crisis.’”