Lebanon: Justice vs. Stability

Rami G. Khouri writing in The Daily Star discusses the escalating tension in Lebanon over potential indictments against Hezbollah elements from the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) on the case of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri‘s 2006 assassination. Khouri notes that “the fear is that if Hizbullah is linked with the murders it would use political or even military force to stop the process, perhaps by bringing the Lebanese government to a standstill.” He cites internal military initiatives by Hezbollah and another war with Israel as possible outcomes. Ultimately, Khouri says, the STL issue “pits two powerful forces against each other, with unpredictable results, but equally momentous consequences for Lebanon and entire Arab world”: the need to hold those who murdered the Lebanese premier to justice, versus the desire to maintain the economic and political stability Lebanon has enjoyed since May 2008. According to Khouri, “How to balance these two worthy imperatives – justice and stability – is Lebanon’s great challenge today,” a matter that is further complicated by the fact that regional actors rather than Lebanon itself will likely play the larger role in addressing this challenge. Khouri sounds a note of cautious optimism, however, concluding that “It will be difficult but not impossible to conclude a negotiated understanding that holds the killers accountable and sends a strong deterrent message to anyone contemplating such political murders in the future, while also preserving the calm that now prevails in Lebanon.”