Iraq: Sadr the “Kingmaker”

Babak Dehghanpisheh writing in Foreign Policy says that Moqtada al-Sadr “is now a kingmaker in Iraqi politics.” Noting that Sadr will play a decisive role in determining the new Iraqi prime minister, Dehghanpisheh argues that this state of affairs was “the result of careful and deliberate planning,” pointing out that Sadr set up an election strategy committee over a year before the March elections, with the result that his Free Movement party won 39 seats in parliament. According to Dehghanpisheh, Sadr has legitimacy in the eyes of the Iraqi population because “his movement is one of the few on the Iraqi political scene that’s homegrown.” Moreover, he suggests that Sadr’s influence puts the U.S. in a difficult position, since “the cleric is clearly following the Hezbollah model, creating a populist political movement backed by a battle-hardened militia.” He proposes that whoever Sadr ultimately supports for PM will have to make major concessions to the cleric’s demands, including releasing Sadrist detainees and relaxing pressure on the Mahdi Army. Long term, Dehghanpisheh argues that “what Sadr is after is power itself,” noting that “there are any number of issues he could block or help push through parliament,” including the final status of Kirkuk, control over Iraqi oil revenues, and women’s rights. More broadly, Dehghanpisheh also asserts that Sadr “wants to be seen as a prominent regional player,” adding that he “would like to promote his Mahdi Army as a member of the so-called ‘axis of resistance’ made up by Hezbollah and Hamas.”