Lebanon: The Future of Hezbollah

According to Paul Salem‘s recent commentary at Project Syndicate, Hezbollah’s fate “has never looked more uncertain.” While Israel is growing less patient with Iran’s nuclear ambitions, both Israel and Hezbollah are preparing for a potential proxy war, Salem explains. Nevertheless, Hezbollah faces the task of justifying its military actions to the Lebanese public, as it has led the country into two “ruinous wars in the span of five years.” In addition, “Syria might be asked by the Arab countries and the international community to take greater responsibility in Lebanon,” Salem predicts. However, due to Hezbollah’s popularity among Shi’a Muslims in Lebanon, Salem argues that it has an opportunity to continue its role as an influential political party, but to do so it would have to separate itself from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Salem also mentions that Daniel Bellemare, prosecutor for the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, “might conclude his investigation and issue indictments in the fall” against five members of Hezbollah for their role in the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. However, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, has rejected the indictments, calling the tribunal “part of an Israeli plot to undermine the Islamic resistance in Lebanon” and alleging that it “has no credibility.” Salem suggests that though Hezbollah’s future may appear bleak, the party “is not likely to relinquish its power without a fight.”