Egypt: Is the End of Mubarak the End of Egypt?

In a recent piece in Al-Masry Al-Youm, Issandr El Amrar argues that in spite of speculations regarding President Hosni Mubarak‘s health, including reports that he may have a form of terminal cancer, not only does Mubarak have “access to excellent medical care that can prolong his life,” but even if he does have a serious deteriorating disease, no one will find out. Rejecting “vague” predictions of what will happen to Egypt after Mubarak, such as an “alliance of the Muslim Brothers and Mohamed ElBaradei bringing about a new Iran-like rogue state” or inner-regime strife, El Amrar argues that Egypt is “too big to fail” and will not be allowed to “spiral into chaos.” According to El Amrar, “The regime’s trump card when under pressure has been invoking its status as a turbulent region’s quiet spot, its center of inertia,” a strategy that has allowed Mubarak to receive bailouts from allies, including Washington. With greater investments in local as well as global markets, the world will not let Egypt crumble, El Amrar says. However, he argues that Egypt’s assumption that it will be rescued can also be regarded as a “curse,” as the country has become “too ready to choose the path of least resistance and just muddle along,” he says.