Obama in the Middle East: “Mixed” Success, Divergence with Israel

Tablet Magazine today released the first section of a two-part series of analyses on President Obama’s policy in the Middle East. The article included commentary from four regional experts: Elliott Abrams of the Council on Foreign Relations, Robert Malley of the International Crisis Group, Dore Gold of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, and Andrew Exum of the Center for a New American Security.

Abrams proposes that the administration’s approach to the region is creating a “diminished America” and a power vacuum. He argues that the administration has overemphasized the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in U.S. policy; according to Abrams, the key struggle in the region is not territorial, but ideological– pro-Western moderateness vs. Islamist-jihadism. To him, America’s main challenge is not Israel, but Iran.

Malley calls the success of the administration’s policy “mixed,” and suggests that Obama has succeeded in improving the image of the U.S. abroad, but not its credibility. He points to a number of factors inhibiting concrete results. Most of all, Malley blames what he characterizes as the administration’s mistaken, overly black-and-white perception of the region as divided into two camps– militants vs. moderates, whom the U.S. must support.

Gold observes that Obama began his term at a time of increased divergence between American and Israeli policy priorities, as Israel’s government has moved to the right and focused more on security issues, while the U.S. administration’s approach has emphasized diplomacy and dialogue. He notes that while Obama focused on the Israel-Palestinian conflict early in his administration, Israel’s chief concern has become Iran.

Finally, Exum comments that the administration’s policies in the region have centered on the “three I’s”: Israel, Iran, and Iraq. Citing Obama’s overall record on Israel and Iran as a failure– noting that relations with Israel’s leaders have been “badly managed,” while Iran appears poised to continue its nuclear program despite the new UN sanctions –Exum interestingly counts Iraq’s fragile stability as “the lone U.S. success story in the Middle East.” On the other hand, he points to Obama’s focus on Afghanistan as evidence that the administration is placing less interest and importance in the Arab world.