Iraq: The Coalition Tug-of-War Continues

Concerns about sectarian tension caused by Iranian meddling in Iraq resurfaced this past week as Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki‘s coalition joined forces with two other leading Shia blocs, potentially marginalizing Ayad Allawi‘s Sunni-backed and secular Iraqiya party. The alliance struck between Maliki’s State of Law bloc and the Shia-dominated Iraqi National Alliance grants the coalition 159 seats, three shy of a parliamentary majority.

In an interview with the AFP, Iraqiya spokeswoman Maysoon Damaluji described the alliance as a “sectarian merger” formed by Iran. ”The Iraqiya list and the national project have been targeted and we feel that this merger was designed by regional powers,” she said.

According to a report in Al-Hayat referenced by Juan Cole, Damaluji may be right about Iranian interference. “One of al-Hayat’s sources maintained that Iran had brokered the coalition in order to deny secular ex-Baathist Iyad Allawi, a known CIA asset, out of the prime ministership, and to stop any move to internationalize the process of forming an Iraqi government (as Allawi has called for),” which the U.S. supports. The blog, Musings on Iraq, arrives at a similar conclusion: “For now the main goal of the new Shiite coalition is to maintain their control of the state, and keep Iyad Allawi out of power. That doesn’t mean his National Movement won’t have a seat at the table of a new government, but Allawi will not be allowed to become prime minister again.”

Perhaps, for that reason, a visibly frustrated yet determined Allawi argued that he had the right - as the lead vote getter in the March 7 parliamentary elections – to get the first crack at forming a government. This might prove difficult, especially after Iraq’s predominant Kurdish bloc offered support on Thursday for Maliki’s growing faction.

Writing on ForeignPolicy.com about the burgeoning developments in Iraq, the Washington Institute’s Michael Knights sees the perfect storm of events weakening American influence and increasing Iranian clout. “If current trends persist, the next Iraqi government will sideline Iraq’s Sunni Arab population, lack the cohesion required to govern effectively, and will be the ideal environment for Iran to peddle its influence in the aftermath of the U.S. military withdrawal,” he argued. Though denying its likelihood, TIME columnist Joe Klein quipped, ”it would, of course, be rather ironic if Bush’s war of choice turned Iraq into an ally, or satellite, of Iran.”