Iraq: De-Ba’thification or Destabilization?

Ranj Alaaldin of the Guardian joins the chorus of those predicting the consequences of Iraq’s proposed electoral regulations (which we previously discussed here and here). In addressing concerns that “de-Ba’athification” may be derailing the national reconciliation process, Alaaldin emphasizes that the participatory blacklist is not yet law (pending a decision by Iraq’s electoral commission), but concedes that the saga itself may have already had the effect of destabilizing the push for national unity. With that said, he acknowledges the value of excluding a movement whose membership continues to include those responsible for terrorist attacks. What is difficult to determine, however, “is whether those seemingly reconciled Ba’thists have truly changed their [colors].” Thus far, Iraq’s other dominant Sunni groups have largely remained silent, perhaps indicating that they see no reason to boycott the spring elections. Alaaldin surmises that if these groups do in fact maintain full political participation, it may be a sign that “Sunnis have largely left, or hope to leave behind their violent, exclusionary past in the new Iraq.”

On a more pessimistic note, British Ambassador to Iraq John Jenkins alludes to Iraq’s violent history in warning that an Iraqi military coup remains a “real possibility.” In testimony to Britain’s ongoing Iraq Inquiry, Jenkins asserted that democracy in Iraq was “not a done deal” but admitted that “where we are at the moment is much better than we thought it was going to be back in 2004-05.”

UPDATE: al-Arabiya is reporting that Iraqi election organizers have barred an additional 500 parties and politicians from the spring election cycle. According to the Independent High Electoral Commission, approximately 6,500 candidates registered to compete in the election, which means that nearly 8 percent of all candidates have now been barred.