Egypt: ElBaradei’s Long Shadow

In a column at al-Masry al-Youm, political analyst Issandr Amrani details what he terms the “ElBaradei Effect” on Egyptian politics, a reference to the looming presence of Egyptian-born Mohamed ElBaradei who served as the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) from 1997 until 2009. In the absence of formidable challengers to the current regime, particular in light of the impending battle over Hosni Mubarak‘s succession, many within the opposition community have thrust their hopes upon ElBaradei whom they view as an internationally respected leader with sufficient gravitas to demand democratic reform. However, ElBaradei put an end to speculation over a potential opposition platform candidacy with a December 2009 statement, saying he would only consider running as an independent in the 2011 election cycle (see our earlier post on this announcement here).

Regardless, Amrani uses ElBaradei’s reputation as an “eminently more qualified” politician than heir apparent Gamal Mubarak as the basis to explore the consequenses of his political emergence. Although pro-government news outlets have already issued a number of personal attacks, Amrani believes that ElBaradei’s call for internationally monitored elections — the first of its kind from a prominent opposition figure — might bring “greater scrutiny to 2010′s parliamentary polls.” But most importantly, he attributes a new environment of “amplified public attention” to ElBaradei’s political arrival, which will surely help to modify the democratic framework of future elections.