Syria-Lebanon: The Return of the Strong Horse

The meeting between Saad Hariri and Bashar Asaad (see out post) is being viewed by many as a turning point in Lebanon-Syria ties.  AFP reports on several reactions to the visit. Paul Salem, head of the Beirut-based Carnegie Middle East Center, contends “through his visit, [Hariri] has announced the end of the confrontation.” Ghassan al-Azzi, political science professor at the Lebanese University, said Hariri’s visit to Damascus marked a radical change in the foundations on which he had built his political alliances.

Meanwhile, Babylon and Beyond reports that while many Lebanese politicians have publicly praised the visit, it “comes as a disappointment for many supporters who remember the heady days of the so-called ‘Cedar Revolution’ following Rafik Hariri‘s assassination, when tiny Lebanon appeared to have beaten back Goliath Syria.”

Michael Totten argues that Hariri has been backed into a political corner by Hezbollah and by a lack of international support.  As such, the meeting indicates that Syria has “re-emerged as the strong-horse in Lebanon.”  Totten takes exception with the American and French moves to “engage” Syria, which ultimately threatens to empower Hezbollah and collapse the anti-Syrian government in Lebanon.

Laura Rozen also writes that rumors of Adam Ereli being named envoy to Damascus are unfounded and that the name speculation for a “Syria envoy is all a bit premature.”  James Denselow, however, argues that the absense of a U.S. ambassador to Syria remains an insult to the country and that President Obama must correct this in order to “better assess whether there is any hope of Syria opening up” and engage in the slow process of pushing for change.

UPDATE: David Schenker argues that “Hariri’s trip to Damascus represents the return of Syrian influence to Lebanon, and perhaps, the end of the Cedar Revolution.”