What If They Had an Election and Nobody Came?

Algeria held a presidential election today, and while the official tally is not yet in, it is widely believed that the incumbent President Abdelaziz Bouteflika will win the contest easily. The Algerian government is expected to use fraud and intimidation to ensure the president’s reelection, and anti-Bouteflika groups from left-wing opposition parties to Islamist parties and even al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb have called for a boycott. A low turnout may improve the incumbent’s margin of victory, but at the same time undercut his perceived legitimacy. In fact, Bouteflika appears to be anxious about that risk. In the run-up to today’s vote, he campaigned across the country, urging Algerians to “Vote, even vote against me, but vote.”