Previewing the Algerian Elections

In a new Washington Institute PolicyWatch briefing, Dana Moss previews the April 9 elections in Algeria. Nobody expects a change in leadership, as the re-election of Abdulaziz Bouteflika is practically guaranteed. The election was, for all intent and purposes, won when Bouteflika successfully pushed through a constitutional amendment allowing him to seek a third term. Moss asserts that Bouteflika’s stability creates less stability for the state as the public, specifically youth, question their democratic system. The very real possibility the amendment was secured by promising giant pay raises for members of parliament is only one troubling aspect of the elections. Additionally, Islamist parties are still not permitted to participate.

For the U.S. it boils down to more traditional concerns: terrorism and trade. The U.S.-Algerian alliance is still critically important in countering al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and with $20 billion in Algerian exports to the U.S. in 2008, Algeria is one of the largest Arab exporters to the U.S. market.

In the short run, it appears these concerns will continue to trump democracy promotion, but with an aging Bouteflika and waning public confidence in the government, the possibility for a shift certainly exists.