Pakistani Democracy versus the Taliban

In a Wall Street Journal op-ed, Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States, Husain Haqqani, defends Pakistan’s efforts to fight the Taliban, pointing to the military’s recent counterattack after Taliban fighters captured the town of Buner, 60 miles from Islamabad. “Now that the Taliban have been driven out of Buner, and Pakistani forces have militarily engaged them just outside their Swat Valley stronghold, it should be clear to all that Pakistan can and will defeat the Taliban.” At the same time, Pakistan has been negotiating with “native Taliban” in the Swat valley who “supported Islamic law but did not join the Taliban’s violent campaign,” a strategy Haqqani compares to U.S. policy in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Haqqani calls on the U.S. to aid Pakistan’s fight against Al Qaeda and other unreconcilable militants by providing “modern technology in antiterrorist engagement” and supporting “Pakistan’s economic viability” by, for instance, passing “the Kerry-Lugar legislation currently before Congress, which would establish a 10-year, multibillion dollar commitment to Pakistan’s economic and social system.” The ambassador claims that “an economically prosperous Pakistan will be less susceptible to the ideology of international terrorism — and it will become a model to a billion Muslims across the world that Islam and modernity under democracy are not only compatible, but can thrive together.”

But Michael Allen at Democracy Digest argues that Pakistan has deeper problems than Haqqani acknowledges. “Such a scenario appears rather distant given that the Taliban’s recent advances in the Swat valley have been based in part on their success in exploiting class divisions and popular resentment at widespread corruption.” He also points to “the weakness and factionalism of the country’s political parties, still largely based on feudal patronage and personalized leaderships.” Allen quotes Brian Joseph, head of programs in South and Southeast Asia for the National Endowment for Democracy, who says that “without strong, transparent, idea-based political parties and strong, independent political institutions, Pakistan will continue to be ripe for military interventions.”

UPDATE: The Foundation for the Defense of Democracies brings our attention to two posts by Bill Roggio, who is skeptical of Islamabad’s claims that it is successfully beating back the Taliban. At the Weekly Standard blog, Roggio points out a worrisome pattern: ”The Pakistani military declares victory after each operation, yet curiously the Taliban move closer and closer to Peshawar and Islamabad and gain more and more ground.” He predicts that Pakistan’s “military will declare victory in a few weeks or months, then a ‘peace agreement’ will be reached with the Taliban. And the Taliban will continue to take over more territory.” And at the Long War Journal blog, Roggio reports that “the Taliban are in control of much of the northern district of Dir despite claims by senior Pakistani officials that the region was secured after a day’s fighting.”