Will Hariri Tribunal Be Undermined by Realpolitik Considerations?

Check out Joshua Hammer’s piece in the Atlantic about the Rafik Hariri assassination and the ongoing UN investigation. As the tribunal concludes, it is widely expected that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and members of his inner circle will be implicated. But Hammer notes that Westrn nations now fear the geopolitical fallout that could ensue if the Syrian despot is outed as a suborner of murder, perhaps altering the outcome. Would it scuttle the Israeli-Syrian peace talks? Bring Syria’s Sunni majority to the streets? Heighten regional sectarian tension? A palace coup?

“In recent months, members of the UN commission in Beirut have speculated among themselves about a deal being secretly brokered between Western leaders and Assad that would allow the Syrian leader to hand over a few token officials in exchange for immunity from prosecution.”