Barrels and Barrels of Leverage with Iran
A companion piece to the post below, Meir Javedanfar in Pajamas Media writes of the leverage that may soon be falling into the laps of any potential interlocutor with Iran. Even though Iran’s oil and gas income rose 31% this year, the economy remains on the brink and inflation is highest it’s ever been post-revolution. With oil prices now falling, Javendanfar writes that the regime is facing a “nightmare scenario” just 10 months away from the presidential elections. He quotes the Iranian oil minister admitting that “$100 a barrel was the lowest appropriate price” that they could handle (oil is $103 as of this writing). Gas-rationing and reduced energy subsidies will become an increasingly painful way of life for the already-frustrated masses.
Javendanfar also points out the undeniable historical link between the price of oil and the willingness of the Iranian regime to play ball with the West.
Wishful thinking. Iran’s economy has been doing well & predictions of an imminent collapse have been made for IRan for more than 20 years now.
http://www.usip.org/pubs/usipeace_briefings/2007/0510_iran_economic_crisis.html
“the belief that Iran suffers from dire economic conditions is one of four myths circulating about Iran’s macroeconomic performance. Iran’s economy has actually performed well in aggregate terms, with a moderate rate of growth in the last ten to fifteen years, including healthy GDP and per capita growth in investment. In the last three years, Iran’s actual growth rate has averaged 5.8 percent”