Ashton Calls for ‘Supporting the Arab Awakening’
The High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton published in the New York Times a piece calling for the support of the “emerging democracies” in the Arab world.
Ashton reckoned that democracy can be “‘turbulent and unpredictable, ” however she believes that “ democracy sets down roots, with the rule of law, human rights, gender equality, impartial administration, free speech and private investment, as well as honest elections, countries prosper and seek to live in peace with those around them. ”
She pointed out that in one year there were ”free and fair elections in Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco. ” In Tunisia the Islamist Ennahda party entered in a coalition, in Morocco the King faces an emancipated Prime Minister from the recently elected Justice and Freedom party, and Egypt saw ”the first democratically elected Parliament in 60 years” have its first “historic session.”
Ashton affirmed E.U. and U.N. support in Libyan’s democratic transition and said “the newly discovered rights apply whether you are from Syria, Yemen, or for that matter from Jordan, Bahrain and the other Arab monarchies. ” Despite suspicion of Islamists political groups expressed by the western world, she encouraged groups “to engage, work and discuss with all the governments, parliaments and organizations with whom we share our commitment to democracy,” adding that “lumping all Islamists into one and the same category is misleading and unhelpful. ”
Ashton’s called for “mutual trust,” both from new political actors in the Arab world and from the E.U and asserted that she is “delighted that the prime minister of Tunisia, Hamadi Jebali, has accepted our invitation and chosen Brussels for his first official visit abroad.” She claimed that support has to be both political and economic with the full support of the international community, financial institutions and the private sector in order to assist during important time of democratic transition. Ashton concluded saying that the E.U is committed to help “demonstrators who toppled tyrants to live their dream. “
Leahy Ties Egyptian Aid to NGO Raids
In a statement on the Senate floor, Senator Patrick Leahy (D-VT), chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee’s Subcommittee on the State Department and Foreign Operations, laid out a strong declaration tying Egyptian aid to the recent NGO raids. Leahy noted there has been progress in Egypt exemplified by elections which have seated a new parliament, but infringements on due process, and the raids on the NGOs – that aim to promote democracy and human rights – hindered freedom of expression and association. Leahy noted the Washington Post editorial, that called Faiza Aboul Naga, minister of International Cooperation, “a civilian holdover from the Mubarak regime” and “an ambitious demagogue [who] is…whipping up nationalist sentiment against the United States as a way of attacking liberal opponents at home.” Leahy declared that he “strongly believe[s] that no future U.S. Government funds should be provided to or through that ministry as long as she is in charge. ”As the chair of the Appropriations Committee’s Subcommittee on the State Department and Foreign Operations, I am confident there is strong support in Congress for this position.” Leahy concluded, the “days of blank checks are over” for the military.
Leahy’s statement followed Senators Carl Levin (D-MI) and John McCain (R-AZ), leaders of the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee, reporting to Foreign Policy that the recent actions taken against NGOs operating in Egypt ”jeopardizes a normal relationship.”
POMED Notes: Lebanon: On the Margins of the Arab Spring
On Friday, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace hosted an event discussing the implications of the Arab Uprisings for Lebanon’s future. The event hosted speaker Mohamad Chatah, foreign policy advisor to former Prime Minister Saad Hariri. Hosting the event was Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Marwan Muasher.
For full event notes, continue reading below. Or, click here for the PDF
“Port Said Massacre” Ignites a Political Crisis
On Wednesday night, a soccer match between the local Port Said team and the Cairo-based Ahly erupted in violence; 74 rioters were killed and hundreds injured in the fighting. Egypt’s parliament convened an emergency session on Thursday to discuss the so-called “Port Said Massacre,” and held Interior Minister Mohammed Ibrahim responsible for the violence. Others called for the parliament to hold a no-confidence vote for the military-appointed government of Prime Minister Kamal Al Ganzouri, even though the interim constitution does not give the People’s Assembly that authority. Demonstrators laid blame on the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), and thousands marched on Cairo’s Interior Ministry Friday calling for an immediate handover to a civilian government. Members of parliament from the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice party (FJP) also intensified their criticism of Egypt’s government but stopped short of directly blaming the SCAF. FJP Leader Essam Al Erian presented the signatures of 120 lawmakers who demanded that charges be filed against the interior minister.
Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Matt Bradley argues that “the widening dissatisfaction with military rule stands to benefit the Brotherhood,” because the FJP is “trying and wrest control of the constitutional drafting process from the SCAF.” James Dorsey counters in Foreign Policy that the riots “will likely strengthen the hand of those in the ruling military council,” and that the growing fatigue of violence means “the Egyptian people will be with them.” Remarking on the recent elections for Egypt’s upper house of parliament, the Shoura Council, Steven Cook argues that in the era of former President Hosni Mubarak the Council was set up to ensure the ruling National Democratic Party’s control and to give government policy legislative legitimacy. The new Egyptian constitution, Cook writes, “should either empower the Shura Council or just abolish it outright.”
POMED Notes: Transition in Libya: The Next Steps
On Thursday, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace hosted a panel on the transitional steps that Libya needs to take towards democracy. The speakers were Azza Kamel Maghur, a Libyan lawyer and democracy advocate, and Fadel Lamen, president of the American Libyan Council. The event was moderated by Marina Ottaway, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
For full event notes, continue reading below. Or, click here for the PDF
Diplomat Died in Custody and Political Awakening in Libya
Today, the New York-based NGO Human Rights Watch (HRW) stated in a press release that a Libyan diplomat died 24 hours after being held in militia custody. Dr. Omar Brebesh was posted in France from 2004 until 2008, first as cultural attaché and then as Ambassador, under former Libyan President Muammar Gadhafi. Brebesh was arrested by a local militia on January 19th in the Libyan capital Tripoli as part of an investigation and his body was reportedly found in an hospital in Zintan (62 mi from Tripoli) the next day. HRW asserted that there was evidence of torture on the body. “ The Libyan government should send a message that it will not tolerate torture and vigilante justice, ” said Sarah Leah Whitson, Middle East and North Africa director at HRW. On Thursday, National Transitional Council (NTC) Minister of Justice Ali Ashour announced that the government retook a prison in the capital from a Tripoli-based militia. The Minister promised that the country’s prisons will gradually be transferred from militia control over the next few months.
On Wednesday, a gun battle erupted in Tripoli between two rivals militias seeking to take over control of key locations such as the airport. The Interior Ministry deployed forces and took control of the situation. Despite the end of the civil war with the fall of Gadhafi’s regime , the NTC’s authority is challenged by militias. The transitional government has tried without significant success to encourage the militiamen to turn in their arms in exchange for benefits like education and job.
Meanwhile, Libya’s citizens experienced new-found political freedom as political organizations prepare for the coming parliament elections. According to Reuters, “dozens of new parties have sprung up after a four-decade ban, offering a vibrant mix of democratic, Islamist, free market, and nationalist agendas and providing an alternative to established political movements like the Muslim Brotherhood. ” Three major forces are expected to emerge as politically strong: Muslim Brotherhood, the nationalist parties, and secularist tribal leaders. The assembly, due to be elected in June, will draft the constitution for the country.
POMED Notes: Iran and Syria: A Tale of Two Crises
On Thursday, The Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings hosted a panel discussing the ongoing crises in Syria and Iran, the potential for escalation, and America’s role in the situation. Panelists included Saban Senior Fellows Robert Moran and Suzanne Maloney, and next generation fellow from The Washington Institute for Near East Policy and Syria Expert Andrew Tabler. Brookings Senior Fellow and Director of the Saban Center Kenneth Pollack moderated the event.
For full event notes, continue reading below. Or, click here for the PDF
Bill Introduced to “Close Loopholes” in Iranian Sanctions
On Wednesday, Senators Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Maria Cantwell (D-WA) introduced S.2058 barring companies “who engage in business or trading activity with Iran from buying oil from America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve.” The “Iran Certification and Reporting Bill,” co-sponsored by 16 other senators, was introduced in an attempt to “close loopholes, increase transparency, and improve effectiveness” of current sanctions. In order to take effect, the bill needs to be passed by the full Senate, incorporated with the existing legislation from the House of Representative, and signed into law by President Barack Obama.
The Senate Committee approved the package in response to concerns that companies have legally continued to do business with Iran. The new bill requires the Government Accountability Office to “expose sanction violators” by producing reports “describing the movements of crude oil and refined petroleum products” in Iran every 180 days. Additionally, the bill targets foreign banks that handle transactions for Iranian national oil and tanker companies and requires the administration to push for Iran’s central bank and other financial institutions to be “shut out” of Swift, a Belgian-based telecommunication service used by many banks around the world to transfer funds.
The tightening of sanctions on the Iranian regime are a part of an international effort to put pressure on Iran to halt its alleged nuclear weapons program- “making the case that there is an alternative to military action.” Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini responded in a speech quoted in the Tehran Times saying, “Sanctions will not have any impact on our determination to continue our nuclear course … In response to threats of oil embargo and war, we have our own threats to impose at the right time.”
Opposition Wins Big in Kuwait’s Election.
Today, early election results in Kuwait indicate that more than 30 of the 50 parliament seats have been secured by the opposition movement, which includes Islamists, liberals and independents, as well as youth groups who cite inspiration from the Arab protests that swept away longtime leaders. The snap elections were called for by Kuwait’s ruler, Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah, in December. Al-Sabah dissolved the chamber in response to a” deepening political deadlock that has stymied reform and held up vital development projects.” The four female MPs who served in the previous parliament lost their seats, but Ayesh al-Rasheed, a journalist and 2009 candidate, felt “women wouldn’t have won the four seats in the last election had they not had government support.” The Liberals also lost three parliament seats out of their previous five. “There’s obviously more traction now for the opposition groups. You have kind of a momentum,” said Shahin Shamsabadi, senior adviser at the Risk Advisory Group.
Sixty-two percent of Kuwaitis cast their vote on Thursday, this is up slightly from the 2009 election with 58 percent casting ballots. Kuwait’s rulers still retain full control over the country, but the parliament can challenge policies, initiate legislation, and bring no-confidence motions against officials. ”Meaningful constitutional reform is unlikely under the leadership of the current emir. However, after power transitions to a new generation, more deep-seated change is likely,” said Jamie Ingram, an analyst at Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, based in Qatar.
Members of Congress Request NGOs’ Access to Bahrain
Eleven members of Congress co-signed a bipartisan letter to the King of Bahrain, Shaikh Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa, requesting Bahrain “reconsider the recent travel bans on non-governmental organizations (NGOs)” and “immediately reverse its position and allow NGOs to enter Bahrain and carry out their important work.” Physicians for Human Rights (PHR), Freedom House, and Human Rights First are the three most recent NGOs to be barred from entering the country. The letter pointed out that banning NGOs from entering the country directly contradicts the Bahraini governments’ previous statements about welcoming observers into the country. Additionally, the letter emphasized the important role that NGOs play in advancing rule of law and protecting civil society and its freedoms. Lastly, it noted that the travel ban is a major obstacle in the way of developing a positive relationship between the U.S. and Bahrain moving forward. Rep. Jim McDermott (D-WA) led the letter, and is joined by Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) and Reps. Keith Ellison (D-MN), John Carter (R-TX), Donald Payne (D-NJ), Lynn Woolsey (D-CA), Trent Franks (R-AZ), Mike Honda (D-CA), James McGovern (D-MA), John Conyers (D-MI) and Jim Moran (D-VA) .
The full text of the letter is after the break below, and available in PDF here.
Writing in The Huffington Post, Joshua Hersh asks ”What happens if there’s another crackdown, and not enough international organizations are there to witness it?” Hersh notes that many observers are anticipating a spike in clashes and violence in mid-February, during the anniversary of protests in Bahrain. According to Brian Dooley, ”Things are getting very tense there. What happens in the next few weeks could completely turn everything on its head. If something very serious happens in the middle of February, around the anniversary, all bets might be off.”
Revised U.N. Draft Removes Delegation of Power
U.N. Security Council may vote as early as Friday as intense negotiations take place at the U.N. Headquarters in New York. The U.S. and its Arab and European allies have reportedly made concessions concerning the text of the draft in exchange for a commitment from Russia to allow the adoption of the resolution. Western leaders discussed President Bashar Al-Assad‘s exile from Syria in hopes of ending the bloody conflict. Reportedly, as many as three countries offered to provide him sanctuary.
The new draft was released Wednesday evening that “fully supports” the Arab League’s decision to “facilitate a political transition,” yet removed language from the Arab League initiative concerning “the formation of a unity government” and “delegation by the President of Syria of his full authority to his Deputy.” The draft additionally dropped a demand to impose U.N. sanctions and a voluntary arms embargo on Damascus. The text “condemns the continued widespread and gross violations of human rights and fundamental freedoms by the Syrian authorities” and demands that Syria “immediately cease attacks against protesters.” The use of violence by opposition forces is also condemned.
The Security Council members, including Russia, called the negotiations “constructive.” Russian Ambassador Vitaly Churkin went further saying, “I think we have a much better understanding of what we need to do to reach consensus.” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told council members that they “have to make a decision. whose side are you on? Are you on the side of the Syrian people…or are you on the side of a brutal dictatorial regime?” The new draft resolution clearly stated its intention “to resolve the political crisis in Syria peacefully without foreign military intervention.” It also added that if Syria were to fail to comply, the Security Council would consider “further measures” under the consul of the Arab League.
On the 30th anniversary of former President Hafez Al-Assad‘s assault on Hama, in defiance of tightened security, the walls of Hama read, “Hafez died, and Hama didn’t. Bashar will die, and Hama won’t.” From London, Zuhair Salem, spokesman for Syria’s banned branch of the Brotherhood said, “Today, all of Syria is Hama.”
Tunisia Faces Daily Protests
Today in Tunis, protesters called for an end of the National Union for Security Forces (NUSF)’ strike. 1000 protesters, gathering on Al Kasbah square, questioned the legitimacy of the strike in response to the protesters demands for security. The NUSF began an open strike yesterday in Al Kasbah square. Around 100 people demanded protection during service as well as improvement in their working conditions. The General Secretary of the NUSF, Abdelhamid Jarraya, said (in French) that the “complaints were for establishing a legal framework that protects the internal security forces.” According to the NUSF, assaults against security officers have recently increased . The announced sit-in was to last until the government responded to their demands. Considerably less demonstrators participated in today’s sit-ins.
On Wednesday, major media unions including the National Union of Tunisian Journalists (SNJT), the General Union of Culture (GUC), the Tunisian Association of Directors of Newspapers (TADN), and the Union of Independent Radio Stations UIRS) called for a strike. Journalists and professionals from the media sector expressed concern about threats on freedom of expression and the press in response to a climate of increasing harassment against journalists and intellectuals. Representatives from the unions met with Mustapha Ben Jaafar, speaker of the Constituent Assembly, and demanded that freedom of expression be guaranteed in the new constitution, and that the Press code approved on September 22 2011 by the High Authority for the Achievement of the Revolutionary Objectives (HAARO), would be enforced.
On January 26, about 6000 Tunisians protested (in French) in Tunis to ‘defend Human rights” and blame ‘acts of violence’ attributed to Salafist groups. A number of associations were present including Tolerance Tunisia and Citizens Front for Democracy and political parties including the Progressive Democratic Party (PDP) and the Republican Party. The demonstrators pointed out acts of violence perpetrated by Salafists on journalists, academics and universities. The demonstrators called for the interim government to take necessary measures to stop this violence. Ahmed Néjib Chebbi, founder of the PDP, declared the ruling coalition lead by Ennahda, ”is not party to [this acts of violence], but it is complacent.”
POMED Notes: Inside the Egyptian Revolution
On Wednesday, the New America Foundation hosted a panel event to discuss a within approach of the upheaval in Egyptand the perspective that can be expected by the newly-elected Parliament. The panel was organized in the framework of the launch of Ashraf Khalil’s book Liberation Square: Inside the Egyptian Revolution and the Rebirth of a Nation. The panel included Ashraf Khalil, Cairo-based independent journalist, Foreign Policy and Rob Malley, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program. The panel was moderated by Leila Hilal, Co-director of the Middle East Task Force for New America Foundation.
For full event notes, continue reading below. Or, click here for the PDF Read more…
Congressmen Say Egypt Aid in Jeopardy
Senators Carl Levin and John McCain, leaders of the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee, told Foreign Policy Tuesday that withholding military aid to Egypt was now a real possibility due to the Egyptian military’s role in the late-December raids on several nongovernmental organizations operating in Egypt. “They should know that this action on their part jeopardizes a normal relationship between us,” Levin said. U.S. military aid to Egypt is “certainly a topic that [the Egyptians] have put on the table,” McCain added. Calls to withhold the promised aid intensified after a number of American employees of the U.S.-funded NGOs were barred from leaving the country last week. Freedom House President David Cramer wrote in the Hill’s Congress Blog that the U.S. State Department must not certify that Egypt met its required democratization conditions. Cramer argued that “this will trigger a suspension in American aid to Cairo, and only a clear and irreversible end to the campaign against civil society organizations, foreign as well as Egyptian, can lift this suspension.” Cramer noted that 400 Egyptian NGOs are also under investigation.
Similarly, the Global Post reported that a number of Muslim Brotherhood leaders endorsed the ongoing investigation into foreign-funded NGOs. Brotherhood leaders also expressed support for the current so-called “NGO law,” which requires nonprofit groups to register with the ministry of social solidarity. “The NGO law is important for the country’s security,” said a member of the Brotherhood’s Supreme Committee in the Beni Suef governorate. This move disappointed pro-democracy advocates, who see the raids as an attack on civil society.
Pressure Surrounding Upcoming Elections in Algeria
Algeria, the only North African state “untouched by the Arab spring”, will be under tremendous pressure as it prepares for parliamentary elections this coming May. Algerian authorities recently gave the green light for ten additional political parties to stand in the elections, but a larger problem has surfaced–the apathy of the Algerian electorate.
The last elections saw a 35% turn out, the lowest number in Algerian history. The government has resorted to text messages reminding Algerians, that “voting is an act of citizenship and responsibility.” The Algerian people have watched neighbors Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt revolt in the face of autocracy and with this “fresh in their minds” will by no means tolerate elections fraud. Sheikh Abdullah Djaballah, leader of the moderate Front for Freedom and Justice Party, warned that fraud will cause “an explosion” and ignite the country in conflict.
The elections will present long-waited for opportunities to Islamist parties. Parties such as Amara Benyounes’ Union for Democracy and the Republic and Abdallah Saad Djaballah’s Justice and Development Front are going to get a chance they have waited on for years. Ali Laskri, Secretary General of the Socialists Forces Front (FFS) believes that the government is not “opening” but “fragementing the electorate.” President of the Social Movement for Peace Bougerra Soltani, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, has called on the Islamist parties to form an alliance in preparation for the elections.
The fair, credible elections in 1991 resulted in a victory for Islamist parties. Weary of the Islamist front, the ruling military government cancelled the elections causing the populace to erupt into civil war costing 200,000 their lives. Djaballah said the Islamists want “social justice” and “an end to corruption” and will not impose a strict Muslim moral code on society. ” An Islamist majority in Parliament would still give them limited influence, according to the Algerian constitution, which gives the president power to appoint the government without the parliament’s approval.
Amnesty Seeks Release of Canadian National in Bahrain
Amnesty International has requested the “immediate and unconditional” release of Naser Bader Al-Raas - citing him a “prisoner of conscience” – from the Bahrain government. Al-Raas was charged in October with illegal assembly, rioting and incitement, and his sentence of five years in prison was recently upheld. Throughout Al-Raas’ intermittent detention, he has alleged torture from security forces while in custody. ”Canadian officials will continue to raise Canada’s concerns regarding Mr. Al-Raas’s situation with the Bahraini government and will urge that his case be resolved expeditiously, particularly in view of his serious health issues,” said Diane Ablonczy, Canadian minister of state for Foreign Affairs, while referencing Al-Raas’ pulmonary hypertension.
Meanwhile, Cherif Bassiouni, a professor at DePaul University in Chicago, who lead an investigation last year regarding Bahrain’s crackdown against pro-democracy protest, will return to assess the extent the government has implemented the reforms he recommended. The Bahrain government has dedicated a website to demonstrate the steps that have been implemented from Bassiouni’s report. Bassiouni said he is returning at King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa‘s invitation, and will finish his review by early March. At that point, “I will be issuing a report on the status of implementation of the [Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry's] recommendations,” said Bassiouni.
U.N.S.C. and Russia: Still Trying to Compromise
Some diplomats reported that progress was made at the United Nations Security Council (U.N.S.C.) meeting that reviewed a draft resolution to resolve the Syria crisis. The British envoy Mark Lyall Grant, though cognizant that there is still work that needs to be done, believes a vote could come in the next few days. Russian Ambassador Vitaly Churkin said, “I think we have a much better understanding of what we need to do to reach consensus.” However, Associated Press reported that Russia will not stop the sale of arms to Syria, saying, “”As of today there are no restrictions on our delivery of weapons. We must fulfill our obligations and this is what we are doing.” The biggest obstacles the U.N.S.C has encountered are stopping Russia’s arms sales and Russia’s opposition to calling on President Bashar al Assad to step down.
Meanwhile, in Syria, the city of Hama has been locked down after citizens poured red paint to symbolize blood in commemoration of the 30 year anniversary of the massacre that was carried out by Assad’s father. Over 10,000 people died in that massacre, and activists have accused the regime of trying to wash away the memory of the past, saying “they want to kill the memory and they do not want us to remember. But we will not accept it.” Firetrucks were seen hosing down streets and removing the paint that had been poured overnight.
POMED Notes: Shifting Sands: The Future of U.S.-Egypt Relations
On Wednesday, The Center for National Policy hosted a panel discussing the future of U.S.-Egyptian Relations in light of important internal developments in Egypt that have put stress on bilateral relations. The panel featured Professor of Political Science and International affairs at George Washington University Nathan Brown, Director of the Rafik Hariri Center at the Atlantic Council Michele Dunne, and Professor of Economics at the National Defense University Paul Sullivan. The event was moderated by former Analyst at the U.S Department of State Gregory Aftandilian.
For full event notes, continue reading below. Or, click here for the PDF
Post-BICI Bahrain: Between Reform and Stagnation
Nearly a year after the beginning of protests in Bahrain on February 14, and despite the Bahrain Independent Commission Inquiry (BICI)’s report released on November 23, the regime has not engaged in reforms to tackle the roots of the ongoing crisis, say Kristian Coates Ulrichsen and Elham Fakhro. Fakhro worked with the BICI during its mandate period.
Ulrichsen and Fakhro detail reforms implemented by the government of Bahrain, but note that the measures taken to date “have left unaddressed many of the roots of Bahrain’s political and economic equalities.” Further, the “emergence of radicalised splinter groups means it is no longer possible to speak of a ‘regime-opposition’ dichotomy.”
The government has taken some measures from the BICI report recommendations, including revoking the arrest powers of the National Security Apparatus, overturned “a civilian court of death sentences for two protesters,” “pledges to rebuild Shiite houses of worship” and the “reinstatement of workers dismissed on grounds of political expression and the dismissal of charges against 343 individuals accused of the same charges.”
However, the authors claimed these reforms do not “make deep reforms to structures of political and economic power.” Moreover the government’s “moves to re-engage the political opposition lack real meaning while many of its leaders…remain in prison” and al-Wefaq headquarters were recently attacked by security forces. The authors continue, “perhaps most damaging to efforts to build a strong middle ground is that, the culture of impunity within the security forces identified in the BICI report has yet to result in any high-level accountability.”
The authors warn about the radicalization of all parties in the conflict. On one hand, many pro-government groups have becoming increasingly radicalized, and are accusing the government of being too lenient with protesters. Reports have also surfaced of “armed civilian groups mobilising intermittently,” one of them led by Adel Fleifel, an infamous torturer from the 1990s uprising in Bahrain. On the other hand, the opposition also appears to be fragmenting with new videos emerging that suggest “elements of the opposition are resorting to more violent strategies as a means of challenging security agencies.”
The authors point out Al-Wefaq’s “insistence on the the government resignation’s as a pre-condition ultimately caused the collapse of the negotiations” last spring. Furthermore, “Al-Wefaq has also been unable to show meaningful results from its decisions to engage with the regime.” Meanwhile, the government has not build trust by its pursuit of “largely symbolic gestures…[as] continuous announcements of impending reforms have yet to translate into significant action…”
The authors contend that “elements of moderation do remain,” but Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al-Khalifa ”has been sidelined” by hard-line elements within the government. Ulrichsen and Fakhro conclude that the symbolic date of the anniversary of Bahrain’s February 14 uprising is “fraught with dangers” and can either “move toward deep and lasting changes to the balance of power between state and society, or the regime will have to rely on the use of force against an increasingly determined opposition.”
WaPo Editorial Board: NGO Crisis a “Witch Hunt”
On Tuesday, the Washington Post editorial board argued that the U.S. government must be prepared to withhold promised military aid to Egypt should the Egyptian government refuse to back off its investigation into U.S.-funded nongovernmental organizations operating in Egypt. This article followed a similar call made by the editorial board to condition Egypt’s aid. Last week, employees from the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and the International Republican Institute (IRI) were barred from leaving the country pending the investigation into the NGOs’ activities. The Washington Post called the travel ban an “extraordinary provocation”, and described the investigation as a “witch hunt”. The U.S. administration must take an “uncompromising stand,” with a clear warning that military aid will be withheld if the campaign against NGOs is not ended, WaPo argued.
U.S. State Department Deputy Spokesman Mark Toner reiterated the U.S. government’s view that the restrictions on the barred Americans were “unfair” and “onerous,” but also praised the ongoing democratic transition in Egypt. In a related move, Egyptian Justice Minister Adil Abdel Hamid returned a letter sent to him by U.S. Ambassador Anne Patterson about the Americans barred from travel. Abdel Hamid said the letter “is not supposed to be directed to the minister of justice and … the ambassador is not the concerned party,” adding that the letter should be addressed to the investigating judges.














